Afghan and Pakistani doubts over Obama plan BBC News

02.12.09

America's hopes go to sleep on the Afghan National Army (ANA), which today numbers some 90,000 soldiers, taking charge.

However, after eight years not a fasten on brigade is self-sufficient or combat-ready. The only charge the ANA has is of Kabul city, where thousands of Western troops are nearby for back-up.

Some 70% of current ANA recruits are illiterate and cannot read the simplest orders or be tasked with anything remotely soign. The 93,000 police recruits are in even worse shape.

The US civilian surge will depend on how effective President Hamid Karzai's guidance will be in partnering international development aid.

After a fraudulent election, the dismal performance of the previous Karzai-led ministry and the short timeframe now available, it may be difficult to make Mr Karzai into an effective partner in the next 18 months.

Moreover, the Taliban may well be philosophy that Mr Obama has given them just one more full fighting season - the spring and summer of 2010 - before the Americans start withdrawing. They may gauge to sit it out, keep their powder dry and try to capture power once the Americans start to leave.

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